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Version Twelve

The DemConWatch Presidential Forecast Contest Table

The folks who run DemConWatch have decided to run a little contest. I've been tracking the entries for them in the following table.

The results here follow NBC's projection of Missouri for Senator McCain and the Omaha World-Herald's projection of NE-02 for Senator Obama.

2242113104955272015111133155137
UserObamaTotalPAVAMNNHCONMNVFLOHNCMOINNDMTGAWVTotalMcCainStatesAccuracyOrder
J 00.0%540-00200.0%0098.7%055
GoThen 60.0%533OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO00537.0%1116.9%066
Travis 59.2%418OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO12038.7%1114.4%039
Leah51.7%415OOOOOOOOOOOOOOMM12346.6%131.0%012
jinmac 52.0%410OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM12843.0%123.7%088
d.rex 56.0%407OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM13141.4%128.5%096
Dan Fox 55.0%401OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO13740.0%118.9%005
Craig Grant 56.4%40013842.7%007.6%054
marc 57.5%398OOOOOOOOOOOOOMOO14042.1%129.3%016
Tom51.1%396OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM14246.8%121.8%097
MHW 53.5%396OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM14244.5%122.9%059
tyleRRR 53.7%396OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM14243.6%124.0%053
JCTampa 55.5%396OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM14239.8%129.6%045
Mquist 56.7%396OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM14239.8%1210.8%033
SLCScott54.8%394OOOOOOOOOOOOMOOM14443.3%135.4%082
joeblitman 52.3%393OOOOOOOOOOOOOMOM14545.2%131.2%078
Josh Habib 53.1%393OOOOOOOOOOOOMOOM14545.1%131.9%095
eyesopen 52.5%390OOOOOOOOOOOOMMOM14846.0%140.4%052
Mike 53.9%390OOOOOOOOOOOOMMOM14844.7%143.1%065
JF 52.0%383OOOOOOOOOOOOOMMO15546.5%130.6%018
QueerCincinnati 53.0%382OOOOOOOOOOOMOMOM15645.5%121.4%076
OrwellGeorge 53.0%381OOOOOOOOOOOOOOMM15746.6%130.9%028
Benjamin Spector, NY 53.1%381OOOOOOOOOOOOOOMM15744.2%132.8%029
Daveman 54.2%381OOOOOOOOOOOOOOMM15744.7%133.4%044
Alex 51.4%380OOOOOOOOOOMMOOOM15846.9%121.6%098
oraclebones 52.6%379OOOOOOOOOOOMMMOM15946.1%130.4%015
ollie 52.5%378OOOOOOOOOOOOMOMM16046.0%140.4%070
Nick 54.0%378OOOOOOOOOOOOOMMM16044.0%143.9%022
Jerry999 52.8%378OOOOOOOOOOOOOMMO16044.2%132.5%051
Jason Cheng 51.9%375OOOOOOOOOOOOMMMM16345.4%151.4%042
Will 52.6%375OOOOOOOOOOOOMMMM16342.6%153.9%060
Aunt Jean 52.8%375OOOOOOOOOOOOMOMM16346.1%140.6%025
Greg in FL 52.9%370OOOOOOOOOOOMOOMM16844.7%122.1%014
Dody 58.0%368OOOOOOOOOOMOMOMM17038.0%1513.9%040
Matt (not that Matt) 53.5%368OOOOOOOOOOMMMMM17046.0%131.4%085
Peter Zenger51.8%368OOOOOOOOOOOMOMMM17044.3%132.6%057
matt 52.1%367OOOOOOOOOOOMMMMM17146.0%140.6%034
Actual52.4%365OOOOOOOOOOMOMMMM17346.3%160.0%000
Roger Lewis 49.7%365OOOOOOOOOOOMMMMM17346.3%142.7%027
styossarian 51.8%364OOOOOOOOOOOMMMMM17446.9%141.2%083
rica 52.3%364OOOOOOOOOOOMMMMM17445.1%141.3%081
ChrisSD 51.4%364OOOOOOOOOOOMMMMM17446.8%141.5%105
Ziggy 51.9%364OOOOOOOOOOOMMMMM17445.3%141.5%104
BESG54.3%364OOOOOOOOOOOMMMMM17444.5%143.7%048
uplandpoet 52.0%364OOOOOOOOMOOMMMMM17444.0%132.7%021
Neal Patel 00.0%36417400.0%0098.7%026
DavidBaltimore 53.5%359OOOOOOOOOOMMOOMM17943.5%133.9%056
Mike Wilson 52.5%356OOOOOOOOOOMMOMMM18246.2%140.2%071
IndieVoter49.8%354OOOOOOOOOOMMMMMM18444.6%154.3%049
BrettSD51.2%354OOOOOOOOOMMMMMOM18445.6%131.9%064
C.S.Strowbridge 52.2%353OOOOOOOOOOMMMMMM18546.2%150.3%099
vamltd 52.5%353OOOOOOOOOOMMMMMM18546.1%150.3%079
Evan 52.3%353OOOOOOOOOOMMMMMM18545.8%150.6%102
James K 52.3%353OOOOOOOOOOMMMMMM18545.7%150.7%092
Alex 51.6%353OOOOOOOOOOMMMMMM18546.3%150.8%093
PA Mike 51.6%353OOOOOOOOOOMMMMMM18547.6%152.1%101
Taoist_redneck 53.2%353OOOOOOOOOOMMMMMM18544.9%152.2%090
JWilkes 50.7%353OOOOOOOOOOMMMMMM18547.2%152.6%094
MikeinGA 50.1%353OOOOOOOOOOMMMMMM18546.6%152.6%069
Ricardo Sanchez 50.3%353OOOOOOOOOOMMMMMM18546.8%152.6%007
Phil A. 49.9%353OOOOOOOOOOMMMMMM18547.1%153.3%077
Vicki53.3%353OOOOOOOOOOMMMMMM18543.2%154.0%087
POTUS_Breath 51.8%349OOOOOOOOOOMMOMMM18944.3%142.6%080
Pinyan52.5%349OOOOOOOOOMOMMMMM18946.3%130.1%068
tonysal53.2%348OOOOOOOMOOOOMMMM19045.2%141.9%047
tmess252.2%344OOOOOOOOMOOMMMMM19446.4%130.3%089
Robert in MN 54.4%343OOOOOOOMOMOMOOOM19543.1%095.2%063
Tim S 51.9%340OOOOOOOMOOOMMOMM19843.9%122.9%043
AZ TLM 52.2%338OOOOOOOOOMMMMMMM20045.8%140.7%074
ejr225 51.5%338OOOOOOOOOMMMMMMM20046.6%141.2%103
Good Latimer 51.3%338OOOOOOOOOMMMMMMM20046.6%141.4%073
lehkost53.2%338OOOOOOOOOMMMMMMM20045.3%141.8%001
Matt C. 53.7%338OOOOOOOOOMMMMMMM20043.1%144.5%037
Dan M. 52.0%333OOOOOOOOMOMMMMMM20546.0%140.7%062
Corinne 51.5%333OOOOOOOOMOMMMMMM20546.5%141.1%058
Kyle Orland 51.3%333OOOOOOOOMOMMMMMM20545.6%141.8%010
coop 50.8%333OOOOOOOOMOMMMMMM20547.2%142.5%011
bandtree 48.8%333OOOOOOOOMOMMMMMM20545.3%144.6%019
Denver Dem 52.3%332OOOOOOMOOMMMMMMM20644.6%131.8%003
Paul Jenkins 51.7%329OOOOOOOOMMMMMMMM20945.3%131.7%084
Beryl51.0%329OOOOOOOOMMOMMMMM20946.0%121.7%008
fast_luck51.7%328OOOOOOOMMOOOMMMM21046.9%131.3%013
Ro'ee 51.4%322OOOOOOOMOMMOMMMM21645.7%141.6%072
Clayton Z 51.1%322OOOOOOOMOMOMMMMM21646.2%121.4%009
Crystal S. 50.9%318OOOOOOOOMMMMMMMM22046.8%132.0%032
Logan Spencer 51.4%317OOOOOOOMMOOMMMMM22147.9%122.6%030
Marc Harris 52.6%316OOOOOOOMMMOMMOMM22245.1%101.4%006
Daniel 51.0%313OOOOOOMOMMMMMMMM22547.2%122.3%024
Clark 53.5%313OOOOOOMOMMMMMMMM22545.1%122.3%035
Mikkel 51.2%313OOOOOOMOMMMMMMMM22547.7%122.6%038
Jonathan Mueller 52.4%311OOOOOOOMOMMMMMMM22744.8%131.5%100
SaveOurCountry 52.2%311OOOOOOOMOMMMMMMM22744.9%131.6%067
Joe the Vice-Preside 51.5%311OOOOOOOMOMMMMMMM22747.2%131.8%091
Markus 51.3%311OOMOOOOMOMMMMMMM22744.6%122.8%036
suzihussein22 50.5%311OOOOOMOMMMMMMO22747.5%103.1%020
OregonDem51.4%306OOOOOOOMMOMMMMMM23246.3%131.0%023
Martha 52.0%306OOOOOOOMMOMMMMMM23245.0%131.7%046
Brian 50.3%302OOOOOOOMMMOMMMMM23646.6%112.4%002
BD1987 51.0%291OOOOOOOMMMMMMMMM24747.0%122.1%050
linworthas 51.4%291OOOOOOOMMMMMMMMM24748.0%122.7%061
DavidG 49.8%291OOOOOOOMMMMMMMMM24746.7%123.0%086
JohnnyAK 50.9%286OOOOOOMMMMMMMMMM25248.0%113.2%031
Yoshiyahu 49.6%279MOOOOOOMMOMMMMMM25946.5%123.0%075
2637649.0%268OOOMMMMMMMMMMMMM27047.2%084.3%017
MattP 48.0%259OMOOMMMMMMMMMMMM27947.0%085.1%041
UserObamaTotalPAVAMNNHCONMNVFLOHNCMOINNDMTGAWVTotalMcCainStatesAccuracyOrder
Consensus52.4%353OOOOOOOOOOMMMMMM18545.2%151.1%000
Actual52.4%365OOOOOOOOOOMOMMMM17346.3%160.0%000

Actual Results Tabulator

ObamaALAKAZARCACOCTDEDCFLGAHIIDILINIAKSMcCain
93106559733271544211176
KYLAMEMDMAMIMNMSMOMTNENVNHNJNMNYNC
3658941012171061135541553115173
NDOHOKORPARISCSDTNTXUTVTVAWAWVWIWY
320772148311345313115103